XRP Price Forecast: Cut Losses or Hold On?

Quick Read

60% of XRP holders bought at an average price of $1.44 and are now down a combined $50.8 billion in unrealized losses.

The CLARITY Act markup is targeted for the week of May 11, with the May 21 Memorial Day recess as the deadline. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $82,000 and hold it to lift the broader market—and both catalysts could get tested within the next three weeks.

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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.40, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours but still down 61% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. 60% of XRP holders bought at an average price of $1.44 and are underwater on roughly $50.8 billion combined.

That leaves most XRP holders in a dilemma: cut losses now or hold for the recovery? The honest answer comes down to two things: the catalysts coming this month, and how much risk a holder can stomach.

Why XRP Holders Are Underwater on $50 Billion

Most underwater holders bought during the 2025 rally that drove XRP to $3.65 in July. Since then, two events have wrecked the price and trapped most holders underwater for months.

The first was in October 2025, when Trump's tariff shock triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history—$19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out in under 24 hours. The XRP price fell from above $2.80 to below $2 shortly after.

Then the U.S. and Iran war began in late February 2026 and made things worse. Oil prices surged above $100, the Fed raised its inflation forecast, and money flowed out of risk assets. Every XRP catalyst that followed—the SEC and CFTC commodity classification on March 17, $82 million in April ETF inflows, and Ripple's expanding partnerships—got swallowed by the broader market weakness, and the price plunged from above $2 to the $1.30-$1.45 range.

So selling at $1.40 still feels like a rational move for many holders. The losses won't go away on their own, the $1.45 ceiling keeps rejecting breakout attempts, and the broader market hasn't fully recovered. But locking in losses before key catalysts decide the move is textbook bottom-selling. The next few weeks could determine how XRP trades for the rest of the year, so holding feels like the most logical choice.

Two Catalysts That Could Decide XRP's Next Move in May

XRP rallying in May could come down to two catalysts: the CLARITY Act passing and Bitcoin breaking above $82,000 to spark a broader market rally.

The CLARITY Act is the bigger of the two. If the bill passes, XRP's regulatory status gets settled and the institutional money would flow in at a large scale. The Senate Banking Committee is targeting a markup for the week of May 11. The White House forecasts that the bill could be signed by July 4, which increases crypto investors’ optimism of passage.

However, the bill is still fragile, with Senator John Kennedy withholding his vote, and the banking lobby pushing to kill the stablecoin provisions. And if the May markup fails, Senator Lummis warns the next window might not open until 2030.

Then there's Bitcoin. The Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $82,000 to lift the broader market—and XRP with it. BTC is trading above $80,000 but has been rejected at $82,000 this week. XRP has lagged Bitcoin's recovery this week—up just 1.8% over the past seven days while Bitcoin climbed 2.2%.

Nevertheless, XRP needs both BTC strength and its own catalyst to break out of the $1.30-$1.45 range. Without Bitcoin clearing $82K, even a CLARITY passage may not be enough to sustain XRP's move above the $1.45 resistance.

When to Cut Your XRP Losses and When to Hold

The decision really depends on the kind of holder you are. Anyone who needs their capital in the next three months, or who can't stomach a drop to $1.11 if the catalysts miss, has a fair case for cutting. Longer-term holders with six months or more of runway can ride out a delay if the markup slips from summer to fall, and holding through May is the more sensible play. And for holders who believe in the catalysts and have dry powder to spare, accumulating at these levels also has its case.

Cutting at $1.40 locks in a small loss against the $1.44 average cost basis, but holders who bought during the 2025 rally above $2 are looking at a much deeper hit. The flip side is the upside: a CLARITY pass with Bitcoin clearing $82K could push XRP toward $2-$3, which is nearly double the current price. So waiting through May 21 means three more weeks of unrealized losses, but cutting now seals the loss before the catalysts even get a chance to play out.

That's not to say the downside isn't worth considering too. If both catalysts fail, the XRP price could break below the $1.28 support, and go all the way down to $1.11, then $1.00, and possibly $0.80 if the broader market stays weak. However, that doesn’t seem like a possibility as things currently stand.

At the end of the day, no one answer fits everyone. It really comes down to whether you can wait three weeks for clarity. By Memorial Day, the catalysts should have given their answer either way, and that answer is more valuable than locking in losses today just to feel like you've done something.

For most holders with time on their side, patience is what the outlook actually rewards. For anyone who needs the capital sooner or can't stomach another price drop, cutting losses is a fair call. Either way, the XRP chart alone doesn't decide it—the holder's situation does.

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