Opinion: How Much Will America Waste on Trump's Delusions?

The Cost of Trump's Policies

President Trump has once again broken a campaign promise, this time by implementing what could be the second-largest peacetime tax increase in U.S. history since the Great Depression. This is not just about inflation; it's about the significant financial burden placed on American citizens due to his decisions.

Gasoline prices have surged by 50% year over year, and with the U.S. consuming over 375 million gallons of gas daily, this translates to an extra $189 billion coming directly out of consumers' pockets compared to a year ago. This figure doesn't even account for the rising costs of diesel and jet fuel, which have also seen significant increases. For example, Spirit Airlines went bankrupt due to these price hikes. Additionally, the cost of petroleum-based raw materials has gone up, and even condom prices are expected to skyrocket.

When all these factors are considered, the total cost exceeds 0.7% of GDP, making it the largest tax increase since the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982. However, this does not include the direct cost of the war itself. Trump is asking Congress for up to $200 billion more to fund the conflict.

While this isn't a traditional tax, the money is still coming out of the pockets of American citizens because of Trump’s decisions. It might as well be a tax.

A War of Ego

Trump's actions seem to be driven by his ego rather than any strategic or diplomatic reasoning. Whether it's trying to punish individuals like James Comey and Jimmy Kimmel or engaging in unnecessary wars of choice, the entire federal government is now mobilized around protecting his fragile ego.

From the beginning of the Iran situation, Trump has been boastful about "unconditional surrender," claiming he has all the cards. However, the Iranians have proven to be more resilient than congressional Republicans. They have wrested control of the Strait of Hormuz and the narrative surrounding the conflict.

Despite Trump's attempts to impose a naval blockade on Iran, the situation has become a stalemate that the U.S. cannot win. Efforts to use the American Navy to open the strait to traffic were disastrous, with the Iranians attacking and Trump abandoning the effort after less than 48 hours.

Iran summarized the U.S. position on X, showcasing their social media savvy. While the Iranian regime may be controversial, their ability to communicate effectively is undeniable.

A Workable Deal

There is a potential deal that could end the war and start phasing out the so-called "Trump tax." However, Trump's ego prevents him from accepting it, as it would mean a humiliating climbdown from his demand for "unconditional surrender." No matter the cost, he would rather keep the war going than admit failure.

This issue is compounded by Trump's apparent inability to comprehend the complex geopolitical situation he is managing. He made a ridiculous claim that Iran's infrastructure would physically explode if it couldn't export oil, which is nonsense. The person responsible for making critical decisions on the Iran war is acting based on delusions, which should be the biggest constitutional crisis in American history.

However, Congress hasn't been able to pass a war powers resolution to rebuke Trump for starting an open-ended war without seeking congressional consent.

A Possible Resolution

The most likely outcome is a temporary agreement where Iran agrees to pause efforts to build a nuclear weapon it no longer needs. Trump will likely lift the sanctions and turn a blind eye while Iran continues to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps Iran will agree to something like the Constantinople Convention, and the tolls they collect will be presented as compliant with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, if you don't look too closely.

This agreement will probably require several rounds of negotiations so that Trump can continue to pretend that the final deal where Iran gives in to all his demands will be signed soon.

If Iran were to rename the strait the "Strait of Trump" and host a big ceremony awarding him a made-up prize, and offer to collect tolls in Trump's meme coin, he might sign the deal quickly.

However, even if an agreement were signed tomorrow, the "Trump tax" will remain for several months as supply chain disruptions work through the system.

A Call for Action

In 2009, Rick Santelli sparked the Tea Party movement with a powerful rant against government bailouts. We need that kind of energy today. Regardless of political affiliation, no one should be spending their money just to help Trump feel good about himself.

Chris Truax is an appellate attorney who served as Southern California chair for John McCain’s primary campaign in 2008.