No One Should Hold Their Breath: Consumers Bore 90% of Tariff Costs Without Refunds – How to Protect What's Left

May 10, 2026 Post a Comment

The Impact of Trump-Era Tariffs on American Consumers

Millions of Americans may have paid higher prices due to the tariffs implemented during the Trump administration. However, they shouldn't expect that money to come back. Even as businesses begin seeking refunds following a legal challenge, the Biden-era CEA Chair, Jared Bernstein, has stated that consumers shouldn't anticipate much relief.

"Maybe some will lower some prices relative to what they'd otherwise be," he wrote on Substack in April. "But no one should hold their breath."

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Businesses Can Apply for Refunds, But Consumers Won’t Benefit

Following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the administration's use of emergency powers to impose certain tariffs, companies are now lining up to reclaim what they paid. More than 3,000 businesses — including major players like FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) — have already taken legal action or begun filing claims, even before the official application process fully launched.

However, there is a catch. Only importers who paid the tariffs directly are eligible for refunds. Although the bill explicitly states, "importers, wholesalers and larger businesses… should pass on the refunds to their customers," it isn't likely to happen.

Goldman Sachs analysts, as reported by Forbes, do not expect any price decreases, adding that the odds of consumers receiving any relief are "negligible." Additionally, they made note that if it were to happen, it wouldn't happen quickly.

Trump himself has said that tariff refunds would take time. "It has to get litigated… It's not discussed," the President said in a February press conference. "It will end up being in court for the next five years."

That leaves out millions of Americans who faced higher prices at the checkout line as companies passed along part of the cost.

The Burden on Consumers

Estimates vary across publications, but research consistently shows Americans bear a substantial (and growing) share of the cost of tariffs. One study from New York Federal Reserve economists found that Americans were shouldering as much as 94% of tariff costs at one point in 2025, with only a small portion absorbed by exporters.

Meanwhile, data from the Yale Budget Lab suggest that roughly 76% of the cost was passed through to consumers by the end of 2025, with some goods seeing near-total pass-through. That means a meaningful portion of the estimated $166 billion in tariff revenue didn't come out of corporate balance sheets — it came out of household budgets.

What Can You Do?

For consumers grappling with rising costs, the situation leaves a bad taste in their mouths. Consumers face a growing list of financial pressures, chief among them inflation. And inflation, in turn, is driven up in part by tariffs.

In 2025, the Trump tariffs cost Americans an additional $1,000 in taxes. If they had stayed in effect, the Tax Foundation estimates that those costs would have risen to $1,300 in 2026.

And with refunds flowing back to companies, Jared Bernstein says that might eventually trickle down to consumers in lower prices for items. There's no guarantee that those savings will be passed down at all, however.

Building Your Own Defenses

So what can you do? If there's one takeaway from all this, it's that consumers may have to take matters into their own hands.

While you can't apply for a tariff refund, you can look for ways to protect and increase your cash flow.

Build a Buffer

One place to start is simply making sure your savings are working for you. A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.

A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%. That's ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC's March report.

Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4.30%. With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, you get access to up to $8M FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks.

You can also check out the CryptoLiveDaily list of the Best High-Yield Savings Accounts of 2026 and find an offer that fits with your savings goal.

Look for Ways to Generate Additional Income

Finding ways to make up for the income lost to taxes is another good way to cushion the $1,000 blow. But many people can't work even more hours than they already do.

That's where real estate investing comes in. You can tap into this market by investing in shares of vacation homes or rental properties through Arrived. Backed by world-class investors, including Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of vacation and rental properties, earning a passive income stream without the extra work that comes with being a landlord of your own rental property.

To get started, simply browse their selection of vetted properties, each selected for its potential for appreciation and income generation. Once you choose a property, you can start investing with as little as $100 and potentially earn monthly dividends.

Be a Landlord Without the Maintenance

Rental properties have long been a proven source of steady, passive income for high-net-worth investors. It's no wonder that real estate accounts for nearly 25% of the typical family office portfolio. But the time, effort and costs involved in managing and maintaining multiple properties can prevent many from investing.

Like Arrived, mogul is a real estate investing platform that offers fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties, providing investors with monthly rental income, real-time appreciation, and tax benefits — without the need for a hefty down payment or 3 A.M. tenant calls. Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the mogul team handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. Simply put, you can invest in institutional quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost.

Each property undergoes a vetting process that requires a minimum 12% return, even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average annual IRR of 18.8% — their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% to 12% annually. Offerings often sell out in under three hours, with investments typically ranging from $15,000 to $40,000 per property.

Real assets secure every investment and are not dependent on the platform's viability. Each property is held in a standalone Propco LLC, so investors own the property — not the platform. Blockchain-based fractionalization adds an extra layer of security, ensuring a permanent, verifiable record of each stake.

Getting started is quick and easy. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

The Bottom Line

Forget the "indirect refund" Bernstein suggests — it probably isn't likely to land in your pocket at all, let alone any time soon. It's likely best to assume that money is gone. Start building your own defenses against inflation and control what you can.

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