Cassidy's Final Fight?

A Political Fight for Survival

Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is in a dire position. The Republican incumbent is battling two primary challengers who are capitalizing on the anger within the MAGA movement over his 2021 vote to impeach former President Donald Trump. Many within the state's Republican Party believe that Cassidy may not be able to secure even a run-off spot in the upcoming primary election, according to numerous interviews with GOP officials, lawmakers, and strategists.

If Cassidy finishes third and loses outright, it would mark a significant defeat for the two-term senator and represent a major victory for Trump in his ongoing conflict with Republicans who have opposed him. Kevin Berken, the chair of the Jefferson Davis Parish GOP, who is opposing Cassidy in the race, said that memories of the impeachment vote are still fresh among voters.

Most polling data suggests that Cassidy is currently in third place, trailing behind two candidates backed by Trump: Representative Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming. Cassidy was effectively sidelined by the state Republican Party after his vote to impeach Trump. Trump has publicly criticized Cassidy as "very disloyal" and urged Louisiana Republicans to vote against him.

The Louisiana GOP primary is part of a broader trend where Trump is targeting Republicans who have crossed him. This campaign began in Indiana, where Trump and his allies successfully removed five state lawmakers who refused to redraw congressional lines in favor of the GOP. Following this, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie will face a primary on May 19.

Despite his strong support for Letlow, Trump has not been very active in promoting her campaign. On Saturday, he re-upped his support for Letlow on Truth Social, calling her a "winner who will NEVER let you down." However, beyond a few online posts, Trump has remained largely silent, despite endorsing Letlow in January and not providing her with financial backing from his $300 million-plus MAGA Inc. war chest. He also did not make an appearance on her behalf during the campaign.

In a recent post on Truth Social, Trump took another jab at Cassidy, stating, "He turned around and voted to IMPEACH me for something that has now proven to be total 'bullshit!'"

Cassidy responded to these accusations in a brief interview with CryptoLiveDaily, saying, "That is a decision I made five years ago. What I think about is the present and the future of my state."

The Cassidy campaign acknowledges the challenges they face but remains confident in their chances based on his record in Congress. Campaign Manager Mark Harris stated that while Cassidy may not finish first, the high number of non-party voters in Louisiana’s closed primary could help him qualify for the run-off.

However, Cassidy’s history of clashing with MAGA has extended beyond just the impeachment vote. He upset the MAGA faithful by questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines during his Senate confirmation. He also angered the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement by helping block the nomination of health influencer Casey Means to be U.S. Surgeon General.

This has led the Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC to pledge $1 million to support Letlow in her bid to oust Cassidy, although the impact of this spending is yet to be seen.

Nonpartisan polling indicates that Cassidy is trailing both Fleming and Letlow, with an Emerson College Survey from late April showing him at 21 percent support, behind Fleming at 28 percent and Letlow at 27 percent.

Julia Letlow's campaign spokesperson, Katherine Thordahl, stated, "Louisianans have never forgotten Bill Cassidy’s vote to convict President Trump, which remains the defining contrast in this race."

While Cassidy's path to a run-off isn't completely closed, he benefits from the split anti-Cassidy MAGA vote between Letlow and Fleming, who both have strong grassroots support. Fleming claims to be the most conservative candidate in the race, citing his record as a member of the House Freedom Caucus and his time as a White House aide under Trump.

Berken, who is leaning toward supporting Fleming, said, "I know what I get with John Fleming, and even though President Trump endorsed Julia, I think he did that at Governor Landry's behest."

Letlow and Fleming have spent the final days attacking each other, indicating they expect to face each other in the run-off or that they believe Cassidy might pull off a surprising rise if they continue to split the MAGA vote.

Cassidy, meanwhile, continues to focus his attacks on Letlow, labeling her “Liberal Letlow” and criticizing her past support for diversity initiatives in higher education. Letlow has since disavowed those programs, claiming they have been hijacked by the left.

One Louisiana GOP strategist, who wished to remain anonymous, said that Cassidy's attacks on Letlow are essentially "murder suicide," predicting that Fleming would emerge as the winner.

Letlow has used Trump’s endorsement as a central part of her campaign, presenting it as proof that she meets the MAGA litmus test.

Jamey Sandefur, chair of the Livingston Parish GOP, noted, "I've always thought that endorsements don't really matter, but I have heard a lot of people tell me that the Trump endorsement of Congresswoman Letlow is going to be the deciding factor for them.”

Adam Wren contributed reporting.