A Plan to Crumble the Russian Economy

The Need for an Economic World War Against Russia

The West must move beyond the last four years of economic skirmishes and declare an "Economic World War" against Russia. Despite the $70 billion budget deficit that Russia faced at the start of the year, its economy has not been crippled. In fact, its oil exports have surged by 52% to 713 million euros ($836 million) per day in March compared to February, demonstrating the limited impact of Western efforts.

Russia's windfall from oil inflation has been further amplified by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil stranded around the world, even though Russian exports have been affected by Ukraine's recent attacks on oil facilities. A wealthy Russia poses a significant threat, as it risks tipping the balance between democracy and autocracy on our planet, potentially leading to a future where humanity lives under servitude rather than freedom.

Since the West is unlikely to confront a nuclear state militarily, an Economic World War is the most viable strategy to shift the balance in the right direction. Western nations have the capability to place Russia in an economic position similar to what led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, since Russia is not likely to suffer from the same communist disease again, the focus must be on destroying its economy from the outside.

Why the West Is Failing Now

To understand why Russia still has sufficient funds to sustain its war effort, it is essential to examine the sanctions across four dimensions rather than just one. First, Russia has been targeted with only a small number of products; these were enforced only to a minimal extent. Second, the sanctions were imposed by a limited number of countries. Third, they were applied only partially to the banking system.

The cumulative effect of these percentages results in a disappointing fraction of what could be achieved. When there are more loopholes than actual sanctions, Putin sees an open field with only a few areas cordoned off with weak fences. Without a comprehensive, four-dimensional approach, the West has only been nibbling at the devil, while the devil has been laughing at our naivety, lack of resolve, and coordination.

The goal is to isolate Russia into a "desert island economy" where it can only conduct business with other authoritarian regimes. Despite Western efforts, Russia managed to export $476 billion worth of goods in 2024, close to its 2022 high of $635 billion when it invaded Ukraine. This, combined with the recent surge in oil prices and Trump's exceptions, means that Russia remains a major exporter. This situation is unfortunate but presents a critical weakness to exploit.

Without trade, Russia would struggle economically and certainly not afford a prolonged war. To sink the Russian ship of state, we must create a "perfect storm" by sending as many "tornadoes" as possible into its path, ensuring they surround Russia in all dimensions.

The Way to Win the Economic World War

The declaration of an Economic World War would be based on a 10-point "business plan" designed to harm Russia and support Ukraine. Each of these measures will work together to create the perfect storm.

The first tornado involves addressing oil issues. No more de-sanctioning of oil, as this only helps Russia sell trapped oil and allows India to buy cheap oil. No more capping the price of Russian oil — instead, implement a real embargo. A cap does not harm Russia if the market price for Russian crude trades below the cap.

After banning Russian crude from being shipped under Western control, secondary sanctions should be imposed on countries still obtaining it via sea and pipeline, forcing deeper discounts. With its "shadow fleet" as Russia's last lifeline, we can drive the discount further by using a "pincer movement" sanction on insurers covering Russian cargo and ports allowing uninsured ships to dock. Blockades on the high seas may also be necessary.

Oil may be a commodity, but "pariah oil" will operate in its own sub-market, trading at significantly lower prices, volumes, and profit margins. Like blood diamonds, "blood oil" will face a discount regardless of global oil prices. We must avoid situations where oil price inflation makes our enemy stronger by allowing it to become richer.

The second tornado focuses on ending patchwork sanctions across the product dimension, including trade and investment in both directions. Blocking some Russian imports can cause factories to halt, creating a powerful economic pain multiplier effect.

The third tornado aims to globalize Western embargoes through secondary sanctions, complemented by the fourth, which maximizes the globalization of banking transaction sanctions. This would make trade doubly difficult by blocking Russia from making and receiving payments. It would also sweep up alternative payment mechanisms Russia might use.

Such a 360-degree trade, investment, and transactions embargo would be the first step toward creating a "Single Democratic Market." All countries would need to close out Russia or lose access to the West, polarizing the world into two economic blocs.

The fifth tornado enforces embargoes by punishing countries that host trade evasion hubs. This is supplemented by the sixth tornado, which gives companies a "duty to damage" Russia. For example, software companies would be forced to deploy kill switches on Russia-based customers, with legal liability underwritten by the sanctioning government.

The seventh tornado focuses on brain-draining Russia to turn it into a poorly-run economy. This must be an active strategy, not passive immigration policy. If Putin bans talent from leaving, he will only increase the resentment of the cleverest Russians.

Ukraine is also part of the Russian economic destruction plan: the eighth tornado gets companies that work with Russia out of Ukraine and expropriates Russian-owned companies still there. The ninth tornado turns Ukraine into an investment hotspot with Western-backed incentives and extra boosts for the defense sector. The tenth tornado uses the $300 billion of Russian cash sitting in Belgium to aid Ukraine through the Ukrainian Repatriation Loan solution.

The Economic World War, combined with Ukraine's daily fight, if waged with the same determination, can bring Russia to its knees, remove Putin from the Kremlin, and give liberty a better chance on Earth. Moreover, at a time when so much of the world craves military peace, an Economic World War will shorten the war in Ukraine.

If you treat your enemy with kid gloves, you are throwing the next generation to the wind.